UUÖ±²¥

College costs have crept up since the early 2000s, with prices rising between 3% and 14% over the last five years. The growing price tag of higher education has forced many students to take on significant debt to finance their degrees, which can affect everything from career choices and homeownership to retirement savings.

Beyond the financial strain on students, rising tuition also raises concerns about access and equity. The more expensive higher education becomes, the less attainable it is for students from low- and middle-income backgrounds. This can exacerbate social inequalities and limit opportunities for social mobility.

We examined geographic trends in tuition, focusing on the five-year period from 2018 to 2023. These trends provide insight into which states had the most dramatic increases in tuition and those that kept costs under control.

Read on to learn more about the geographic trends in higher education costs.

Rising Costs Across the Board

We started our analysis using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (). This tuition data at public, four-year universities reveals one clear trend — costs are rising across the nation. 

The average college tuition increase from 2018 to 2023 was 6.8%, with 24 states experiencing hikes above this average. These increases have varied widely among states, which may point to the impact a state's unique characteristics, like demographics, government policies, and economic health, can have on the price of higher education.

Wyoming led the nation with the highest percentage increase in college tuition — 22.6% — translating to a $1,221 increase over the five-year period. Missouri and North Dakota followed with substantial increases of 21.2% and 18.7%, respectively. Florida, Oklahoma, and Hawaii had the smallest increases in tuition, with Florida's tuition rising by a mere 0.5%.

States With the Highest Change in Tuition

Tuition at public institutions has not increased evenly across the country. The following ten states saw the greatest percentage increases in average in-state tuition over the five-year period studied.

These increases raise questions about underlying causes. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities () attributes rising costs to reduced state funding and general inflationary pressures, but a between decreased funding and increased tuition has not been firmly established. 

Additional causes for rising college costs may include increased spending on staffing and facilities, declines in enrollment, and expanded federal funding through student loans. Research from the National Bureau of Economic Research () suggests that expansions to the Federal Student Loan Program (FSLP) could be a major driver, potentially accounting for a doubling of tuition costs.

Southern Relief: Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina See Rare Tuition Decreases

In contrast to the national trend, a select few states experienced a decline in college costs. The three states with tuition decreases include Tennessee, Georgia, and South Carolina — notably all southern states.

The outlined factors likely contributed to these decreases, but other state-specific policies, economic conditions, and institutional decisions could have also played a role.

Which States Have the Cheapest and Most Expensive Tuitions?

Percentages provide a picture of how tuition has changed over time, but they don't reveal which states have the most and least expensive tuition costs. Despite Wyoming's top ranking spot in tuition percentage increase, the state's average tuition in the 2022-23 academic year was only $6,621 — making it the sixth cheapest tuition rate in the nation. In contrast, Virginia boasted the highest tuition in the country at $15,405, despite a more moderate increase of 8.1%.

Florida consistently held the title of the most affordable state for public college tuition, maintaining an average annual rate under $4,000 throughout the five-year period. Although the national average for public college tuition stood at $8,800, 19 states reported average annual public college tuition exceeding $10,000 in the 2022-23 academic year. This highlights the disparities in costs across the country.

Factors Influencing Geographic Tuition Disparities

It’s challenging to pinpoint an exact cause for the wide variation in public college tuition across states, but there are likely several contributing factors, including those that are economic, demographic, and policy-related.

State Funding and Allocation

State appropriations directly impact the financial resources available to public colleges and universities, which influences their ability to maintain affordable tuition. According to the , approximately 85% of higher education funding in 2021 originated from state governments.

How states allocate funding within the higher education sector is also worth noting. Data from the Urban Institute shows that states direct around 13% of appropriations toward grant programs for students, while 87% goes directly to institutions in order to support their operations. This distribution can have a substantial impact on tuition costs, as a higher percentage of funding allocated to grants can ease the financial burden on students.

Examining state-specific data reveals differences in funding priorities. In the 2016-17 academic year, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Georgia were among the top states allocating a considerable portion of their state funding to grants, with percentages of 36.4%, 23.5%, and 22.7%, respectively. 

States like Wyoming, Missouri, and North Dakota — which were among the highest in college tuition increases — devoted a smaller share of their state funding to grants, with percentages of 4.5%, 12.8%, and 4.9%, respectively.

These observations don't establish a direct causal relationship between state funding allocations and college tuition increases, but they suggest a potential correlation that warrants further investigation.

Inflation

Inflation can impact a university's budget, and the past five years have seen at a combined 22.2%. To counter this, universities may raise tuition to maintain the purchasing power of their existing resources. For instance, if the costs of utilities, faculty salaries, and library resources increase because of inflation, a university may raise tuition to offset these rising expenses and ensure they can continue to provide essential services to students.

Differences in Spending

Aside from inflation, increased spending is also a driving cause of college tuition increases. When adjusted for inflation, total operating expenses at the median university rose nearly 10% from 2012 to 2022. To cover these costs, schools have passed the burden onto students through higher tuition fees, even in states with lower incomes.

For states committed to minimizing tuition increases, cost cutting may be at play. Universities may cut costs through administrative restructuring, removing non-essential programs or staff positions, and renegotiating contracts with vendors. For example, a university might phase out a low-enrollment program in humanities in favor of a growing computer science program to better align its offerings with current workforce demands.

Enrollment Shifts

Economic downturns, like we saw during the COVID-19 pandemic, make college a less affordable option for many families. This can lead to decreases in enrollment, which puts pressure on universities to reduce costs or raise tuition to compensate for lost revenue. 

In the five-year period from 2018 to 2023, the country saw a of 3.62%. Families may have chosen to delay college, forgo enrollment altogether, or they may have opted for less expensive alternatives, such as community colleges and online programs.

The Bottom Line

Tuition trends across the United States are complex and influenced by various factors. While there's no clear geographic pattern in college tuition increases, nationwide trends such as declining state funding and rising operational costs have likely contributed.

Southern states decreasing tuition have done so through targeted investments in higher education, the strategic allocation of funds, and policies that prioritize affordability. However, college affordability remains a concern for many, even in states with lower tuition.

Understanding the factors influencing tuition is crucial for policymakers, students, and families. By analyzing these trends, we can gain valuable insights into the challenges facing higher education and identify potential solutions to make college more affordable for all.

Methodology

OnlineU used data from to compare tuition across U.S.-based colleges. We analyzed reported tuition data from the 2018-19 school year through the 2022-23 school year. For the purposes of this report, we only looked at in-state tuition for public universities and colleges. Data for state funding and allocation was sourced from the Urban Institute.