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Colleges across the country are struggling to remain open amidst enrollment declines, financial issues and other factors that make it difficult to operate at the same level they once did. At least in 2023, leaving thousands of residents across the country with fewer education options after high school. These closures are making public college options more important than ever as students question the value of a college degree that comes with such a high price tag.

Our analysis found that an estimated 3.5 percent of people in the United States live in an education desert, where the nearest public college is more than 30 miles away, leaving more than 11 million Americans without viable access to in-person higher education options.

Our Approach to the Research

To get a better sense of what education access looks like across the United States, we calculated what percentage of the population in each state has access to public four-year and two-year colleges. We chose to focus on public schools because they tend to serve larger student bodies, have higher admissions rates and are more affordable for their local communities.

Our geospatial analysis calculated what percent of each census tract fell within a 30-mile radius of any public college or university in the United States. Then, we estimated the percent of the population that may live within the buffer zone for each school.

This state-by-state analysis looks at the disparities in educational access and population-per-college metrics and explores how online learning could become a lifeline for students in underserved areas, but has been adopted by colleges and learners with mixed results. By examining geographic trends and the potential for online education to transform accessibility, we hope to offer a roadmap for addressing one of higher education’s big equity challenges.

States With The Worst Access To Higher Education

States with some of the lowest populations also tend to have the least access to higher education, including Alaska and Wyoming, where more than 40% of residents don’t live within 30 miles of a public four-year university or community college. These states are less populated and tend to be very large, meaning residents located in the center or far from major cities are often left with no options in terms of accessible college campuses in their area.

Lowest rate of access to higher education by state

States With The Best Access To Public Colleges And Universities

Most of the states with the best access to public colleges and universities are located in the northeast, a region that tends to have a strong emphasis on higher education in general and highly-educated populations. These states are also oftentimes smaller and more densely populated compared to states in the Midwest, and they are in close proximity to states such as New York that make it easier for residents to access colleges in nearby areas.

Highest rate of access to higher education by state

Note: Estimated state population is based on Census tracts with available data in our dataset and may be slightly smaller than other statistics. Our analysis is also an estimate – some students throughout the state may lack access despite a 100 percent rating.

Population-per-college Disparities

Even if a state has many public colleges and universities available, they may not be enough to ensure everyone has access to affordable education. For states without enough colleges or those with a high population, both public and private schools may be overloaded with students. 

This list shows states with the most people per public college, highlighting areas where there may be strain on the public education infrastructure.

States with the most people per public institution

States such as Nevada and Utah have mid-sized populations, especially in major cities like Salt Lake City and Las Vegas. However, outside of these areas, public colleges are few and far between. Florida faces a different issue – it’s home to a grand total of 65 public colleges and universities, but has a massive population, indicating a potential strain despite the wide availability of actual campuses. 

Can UUÖ±²¥s Fill the Gaps?

For some students, online learning has begun to bridge the gap when affordable college options aren’t accessible. Many public colleges and universities have begun to offer online degrees to better serve students who can’t make it to campus. While online learning has been growing for decades, in recent years there has been an explosion of online offerings, with some schools enrolling more than 100,000 students each year through their online programs.

Colleges in some of the areas with the least access, including Alaska, Wyoming, and Nevada, have adopted online programs to better serve state residents. States such as Texas and North Carolina have a wide array of schools offering online degrees and largely serving in-state students. However, not all states have been quick to expand their offerings, or they are serving more out-of-state students than in-state. These may represent states where large online colleges are headquartered, such as New Hampshire or Arizona, home to some of the largest online colleges in the country.

States with the most online learners studying in-state

Note: Table includes public, private and for-profit colleges at all levels

Looking Ahead: Increasing Access And Availability

Typically, college students who need to save money will opt for in-state options as they qualify for lower tuition. However, in an effort to attract students and meet online learning needs, many online schools now advertise rates comparable to state universities or grant in-state tuition for online learners regardless of where they live.

Some schools have turned to expanding online offerings as campus numbers dwindle, looking to adult learners returning to college to help boost enrollment. As funding gaps and enrollment drops put many smaller private colleges and some public schools at risk, schools may continue to expand online offerings to reach new audiences.

While institutions and students themselves are the main drivers of these expansions, policy changes play a role as well. The U.S. Department of Education plays a key role in regulating accreditation, the process through which schools undergo to gain legitimacy as a college in the public eye and gain access to federal funding for their students. Expanding access to broadband infrastructure is also a key part in this discussion — many rural communities lack reliable internet access, making it hard to access any type of college at all.

Methodology

For this analysis, we mapped every public two-year college and university in the country, then developed 30-mile buffer zones around each one. Next we calculated the percentage of each census tract that intersected those buffer zones. Finally, we applied that percentage to the population of those tracts to get an estimate of how many people might live in that buffer zone. While this gives us a good idea of who has access to public colleges, it is not an exact measure – for example, if half of a census tract falls within a buffer zone but most people live near the major city located in the other half, it may not give us as accurate a population estimate. 

For the calculations involving online learners, we looked at the percent of online learners at any college with distance education students enrolled, including private and nonprofit schools, and whether those students were located in the same state as the college, to see how online learning enrollment varied from state to state.